Monthly Archives: April 2023

Banking Capital Structure and its ranking

Features of Tier 2 capital bonds versus equity hybrids:

  • Dated securities with a fixed maturity date
  • Payments are based on a floating interest rate
  • Unfranked and non discretionary payments
  • Payments are cumulative, which means any missed must be made up at a later date, unless PONV event is triggered by APRA
  • There is no mandatory conversion, or scheduled conversion, to equity
  • Any losses are applied to preference shares and AT1 capital, ahead of Tier 2 capital
  • AT1Contingent convertible capital instruments (CoCos) also known as Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds, are hybrid bonds that combine debt and equity elements. BASEL III Basel III is a comprehensive set of reform measures, developed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, to strengthen the regulation, supervision and risk management of the banking sector.
  • CumulativeMissed dividend payments/distributions must be made up at a later date. PONV Point of non viability, the point at which regulators decide a bank is no longer able to function. To count towards regulatory capital ratios under Basel III, subordinated bonds must be written down to zero or converted to equity when the trigger is hit. Non cumulative Missed dividend payments/distributions are forgone. The issuer of the security is not obliged to pay the unpaid amount to the holder. Subordinated debt A bond or loan that ranks below senior debt, loans and creditors. In the event of a wind up (insolvency) of an issuer, subordinated debt is not paid until all senior debt and unsecured creditors are paid first. Tier 1 Capital vs. Tier 2 Capital: An Overview Under the Basel Accord, a bank has to maintain a certain level of cash or liquid assets as a ratio of its risk-weighted assets. The Basel Accords are a series of three sets of banking regulations that help to ensure financial institutions have enough capital on hand to handle obligations. The Accords set the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) to define these holdings for banks. Under Basel III, a bank’s tier 1 and tier 2 assets must be at least 10.5% of its risk-weighted assets. Basel III increased the requirements from 8% under Basel II. A bank’s capital consists of tier 1 capital and tier 2 capital, and the two types of capital are different—there is a third type, conveniently called tier 3 capital. Tier 1 capital is a bank’s core capital and includes disclosed reserves—that appears on the bank’s financial statements—and equity capital. This money is the funds a bank uses to function on a regular basis and forms the basis of a financial institution’s strength. Tier 2 capital is a bank’s supplementary capital. Undisclosed reserves, subordinated term debts, hybrid financial products, and other items make up these funds. A bank’s total capital is calculated by adding its tier 1 and tier 2 capital together. Regulators use the capital ratio to determine and rank a bank’s capital adequacy. Tier 1 Capital Tier 1 capital consists of shareholders’ equity and retained earnings—disclosed on their financial statements—and is a primary indicator to measure a bank’s financial health. These funds come into play when a bank must absorb losses without ceasing business operations. Tier 1 capital is the primary funding source of the bank. Typically, it holds nearly all of the bank’s accumulated funds. These funds are generated specifically to support banks when losses are absorbed so that regular business functions do not have to be shut down. Under Basel III, the minimum tier 1 capital ratio is 10.5%, which is calculated by dividing the bank’s tier 1 capital by its total risk-weighted assets (RWA). RWA measures a bank’s exposure to credit risk from the loans it underwrites. For example, assume there a financial institution has US$200 billion in total tier 1 assets. They have a risk-weighted asset value of 1.2 trillion. To calculate the capital ratio, they divide $200 billion by $1.2 trillion in risk for a capital ratio of 16.66%, well above the Basel III requirements. Also, there are further requirements on sources of the tier 1 funds to ensure they are available when the bank needs to use them. Tier 2 Capital Tier 2 capital includes undisclosed funds that do not appear on a bank’s financial statements, revaluation reserves, hybrid capital instruments, subordinated term debt—also known as junior debt securities—and general loan-loss, or uncollected, reserves. Revalued reserves is an accounting method that recalculates the current value of a holding that is higher than what it was originally recorded as such as with real estate. Hybrid capital instruments are securities such as convertible bonds that have both equity and debt qualities. Tier 2 capital is supplementary capital because it is less reliable than tier 1 capital. It is more difficult to accurately measure due to its composition of assets that are difficult to liquidate. Often banks will split these funds into upper and lower level pools depending on the characteristics of the individual asset. In 2019, under Basel III, the minimum total capital ratio is 12.9%, which indicates the minimum tier 2 capital ratio is 2%, as opposed to 10.9% for the tier 1 capital ratio. Assume that same bank reported tier 2 capital of $32.526 billion. Its tier 2 capital ratio for the quarter was $32.526 billion / $1.243 trillion = 2.62%. Thus, its total capital ratio was 16.8%(14.18% + 2.62%). Under Basel III, the bank met the minimum total capital ratio of 12.9%. Key Takeaways:
    • Under Basel III, a bank’s tier 1 and tier 2 assets must be at least 10.5% of its risk-weighted assets, up from 8% under Basel II.
    • Tier 1 capital is the primary funding source of the bank.
    • Tier 1 capital consists of shareholders’ equity and retained earnings. 
    • Tier 2 capital includes revaluation reserves, hybrid capital instruments and subordinated term debt, general loan-loss reserves, and undisclosed reserves.
    • Tier 2 capital is considered less reliable than Tier 1 capital because it is more difficult to accurately calculate and more difficult to liquidate.

Things to note(Traders&Investors): 13th April 2023 Thurs,@8.20AM

  • Asia markets fall as US inflation report shadowed by Fed expecting a recession ,Nik,29096/13/0.05% Dj,33647/-38/-0.11% Vix19.1/-0.15% US stock futures tick lower as investors weigh recession risk,
  • Oil,83.4 rises as market digests key inflation data,  Gold,2022.9, rises as inflation cools , market watches for Fed minutes, Bonds,3.449, falls after inflation comes in cooler than forecast in march, Dollar, drops as inflation comes in below, economists expectations, BC 30043/-235/-0.78%
  • Nifty:17812.4/90.1/0.51%;Candle:OF,Doji; Bank Nifty:41557.95/191.45/0.46% Candle:OF,Doji ; HB:OF,Short day green,1685,
  • Nifty :Supp Rest
  • Banknifty:Supp Rest .
  • SGX Nifty:17864/-15/-0.07%     FII Long35%FutCash;1908;Opt96%
  • OI data Nifty  ( max pain W17750M)
  • OI data Bank Nifty Nifty(max pain W M)
  • News:Trends on the SGX Nifty indicate a mildly negative start for the broader index in India, as the index lost 35 points to trade at 17,844 level on the Singaporean Exchange from its April 12 closing of 17,812. IIP growth edges up to 5.6% in February, RBI may maintain status quo on rates in June as CPI inflation falls below 6%, say economists, Oil jumps after slight increase to U.S. consumer prices,
  • Events/Results:Infosys: The software solutions provider will be in focus ahead of its March FY23 quarter earnings scheduled to be announced on April 13. Amalgamated Electricity, Avantel, Roselabs Finance, and Thirdwave Financial Intermediaries will also announce quarterly earnings on the same day.
  • The National Stock Exchange has added Balrampur Chini Mills and retained Delta Corp to its F&O ban list for April 13.
  • Market wrap up(DWM,T,N,E):Bulls seem to be unstoppable as the benchmark indices continued their upward journey for the eighth consecutive session and closed at a more than seven-week high on April 12, ahead of CPI inflation numbers which came in at 5.66 percent for March against 6.44 percent in the previous month. The BSE Sensex jumped 235 points to 60,393, while the Nifty50 climbed 90 points to 17,812, the highest closing level since February 21 and formed a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily charts. The index has also made higher highs and higher lows for the eighth day in a row. The Nifty seems to have gathered strength recently by surpassing crucial hurdles like the previous opening downside gap of March 10 at 17,600 levels, downsloping significant trendline at 17,700 and now it has surpassed another hurdle of the previous lower top of March 6 at 17,800 levels. This is a positive indication, and it signals the negation of larger degree bearish setup like lower tops and bottoms of the last 3-4 months, Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities said. Hence, he believes that any downward correction from here is likely to be a higher bottom formation and that could open a bullish chart pattern like higher tops and bottoms in the near term. The next upside level to be watched is around 18,200, whereas immediate support is at 17,700 levels, he said.

Things to note(Traders&Investors): 12 April 2023 Wed,@8.20AM

  • Asia markets mostly rise ahead of US inflation report and bank earnings, Nik, 28043/122/0.44% Dj,33685/98/0.29% Vix19.16/0.69% US stock futures are flat ahead of key March inflation data,
  • Oil,81.22/ little changed as traders weigh china stimulus expectations,  Gold,2020.8, advances as traders await US inflation data, Bonds,3.451, little changed as investora await Fed speaker remarks, inflation data, Dollar,pauses after Fed strong hawkish bets, bitcoin hits #30000, BC30203/1022/3.5%
  • Nifty:17722.3/98.25/0.56%;Candle:OGU;Long day green ; Bank Nifty:41366.5/531.85/1.3% Candle:OGU,Long day green ; HB:OGU,Short day green,1665,
  • Nifty :Supp Rest
  • Banknifty:Supp Rest .
  • SGX Nifty:17801/11/0.06%     FII Long28% FutCash;342;Opt98%
  • OI data Nifty  ( max pain W17700M)
  • OI data Bank Nifty Nifty(max pain W M)
  • News:Oil rises about 2% with U.S. and China inflation in focus, March CPI inflation seen at 15-month low of 5.7% due to favorable base., Trends on the SGX Nifty indicate a mildly positive start for the broader index in India, as the index gains 15 points to trade at 17,802 level on the Singaporean Exchange from its April 11 closing of 17,722. TCS Q4 Preview| Subdued growth expected due to client delays in US and Europe Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Rate hike expectations boosted the US dollar index on Monday and Tuesday, which weighed on oil prices as dollar strength makes oil more expensive for other currency holders. Gold climbs as dollar pauses ahead of US inflation data. Gold climbed back up above the key $2,000 level on Tuesday as the dollar came off last session’s peak, while traders hunkered down for Wednesday’s U.S. inflation data for cues on future interest rate hikes.
  • Events/Results:Tata Consultancy Services, Anand Rathi Wealth, and Dharani Sugars & Chemicals will be in focus ahead of March FY23 quarter earnings.
  • The National Stock Exchange has added Delta Corp to its F&O ban list for April 12.
  • Market wrap up(DWM,T,N,E):Bulls retained their control over Dalal Street for the seventh consecutive session, taking the Nifty50 above the 17,700 level on April 11, backed by banking and financial services, auto, FMCG, metal, and oil and gas stocks. The BSE Sensex closed above the psychological 60,000 mark for the first time since March 8, rising 311 points to 60,158, while the Nifty50 climbed 98 points to 17,722 and formed a high wave kind of pattern on the daily charts. Also, there seems to be a hidden bearish divergence with the Nifty making a lower high and momentum indicator RSI (relative strength index) making a higher high, indicating the possibility of some trend reversal. “The index has been sustaining above the critical moving average. Besides, the Nifty has so far remained above the crucial support level of 17,500. The market will remain a buy on dips as long as the index remains above 17,500,” immediate support is visible at 17,640. On the higher end, the rally may extend towards 17,850-17,970. The broader markets also traded largely in line with benchmarks as the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices gained 0.5 percent and 0.4 percent respectively

Things to note(Traders&Investors): 11 April 2023 Tues,@8.20AM

  • Bank of Korea hold rates,Asia markets rise as bitcoin hits $30000; Nik,27940/309/1.12% Dj,33587/101/0.3% Vix18.97/ 3.1% USstock futures are flat Monday evening as March inflation reports loom ahead,
  • Oil,80,slips as rate hike worries balance tighter supplies,  Gold,2004.1, slides under $2000 as jobs growth lift dollar, Bonds, 3.407,yields little changed as traders wait key inflation data, Dollar, rises monday , signalling continued strength in US labor market, BC 29144/978/3.5%
  • Nifty:17624.05/24.9/0.14%;Candle:OGU,Doji; Bank Nifty:40834.65/-206.35/-0.5% Candle:OF,Short day red ; HB:OF,Short day red,1661,
  • Nifty :Supp Rest
  • Banknifty:Supp Rest .
  • SGX Nifty:17723/38/0.21%     FII Long22%FutCash;882;Opt87%
  • OI data Nifty  ( max pain W17600M)
  • OI data Bank Nifty Nifty(max pain W M)
  • News:The Indian equity benchmarks are expected to open flat or marginally higher today, as trends in the SGX Nifty indicate a mildly positive start for the broader index with a gain of 14 points after Nifty closed 24 points higher at 17,624 on Monday. SGX futures stood at 17,699. RBI signals possible extended pause in interest rates, but no imminent cut likely, The Federal Reserve may not need to raise interest rates further to fight inflation, as the fallout from last month’s turmoil in the banking sector and a series of recent labor data point to a slowing US economy, a BlackRock executive said on Monday. Gold retreated below the key $2,000 level on Monday as the dollar advanced on Friday’s strong US jobs numbers, while traders also positioned for inflation readings this week that could influence interest rate hikes. Rate hike expectations boosted the US dollar index on Monday and Tuesday, which weighed on oil prices as dollar strength makes oil more expensive for other currency holders. Oil inches up, weighing OPEC+ supply cuts against rate hike fears,
  • Events/Results:The National Stock Exchange has not added any stock to its F&O ban list for April 11.
  • Market wrap up(DWM,T,N,E):The market remained in positive terrain for six days in a row, though it was highly volatile session on April 10. Auto, technology, metal and oil & gas stocks supported the market, whereas selling was seen in banking & financial services, and FMCG stocks. The BSE Sensex gained 13.54 points to close at 59,847, while the Nifty50 closed above the 17,600-mark for the first time since March 8, rising 25 points to 17,624 and formed small bodied bearish candle with long upper shadow on the daily charts, indicating selling pressure at higher levels. “This pattern indicates a tiredness of bulls at the crucial hurdle of 17,600-17,700 levels, which are opening downside gap of March 10 and down sloping trendline, connected from the top of December 2022. This pattern could be a minor setback for bulls for the short term,”  there is a possibility of minor downward correction from the highs, but the short-term trend of Nifty remains positive. “The presence of crucial overhead resistance and an emergence of minor weakness from the highs could indicate further consolidation or minor downward correction for the Nifty from near 17,650-17,700 levels in the coming sessions. Any dips from here could be a buying opportunity and immediate support is at 17,510 levels,” The broader markets also extended gains, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices climbing 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.

Things to note(Traders&Investors): 10 April 2023 Mon ,@8.20AM

  • Asia markets mixed as investors comeback from long week end, Nik,27630/111/0.4% Dj,33485/2.6/0.01% Vix18.4, S&P futures and treasury yield gains on Friday as march labor report says resilient economy,
  • Oil,80.46,steady , snatches 3rd weekly gain after shock Opec+ cuts,  Gold,2023.7, eases on its way to weekly gainon economic woes, Bonds,3.413, S&P futures and treasury yield gin on friday as march labor report resilient economy, Dollar, dips against most currencies ahead of US non payrolls , BC 27938/-4/-0.02%
  • Nifty:17599.15/42.1/0.24%;Candle:OGD,Long day green; Bank Nifty:41041/41.85/0.1% Candle:OGD, Short day green ; HB:OGD,Long day green, 1667,
  • Nifty :Supp Rest
  • Banknifty:Supp Rest .
  • SGX Nifty:17695/-21/-0.12%     FII Long18%FutCash;475;Opt16%
  • OI data Nifty  ( max pain W17600M)
  • OI data Bank Nifty Nifty(max pain W M)
  • News:US yields climb after jobs report,2.36L in March , uemployment 3.5% from 3,6%, UBS forecasts 5.5% Real GDP Growth for India in FY24, Oil edges higher on prospect of tighter supplies, Trends on the SGX Nifty indicate a flat start for the broader index in India, as the index gains of 15 points at 17,695 level on the Singaporean Exchange from its April 6 closing of 17,680.
  • Events/Results: The National Stock Exchange has not added any stock to its F&O ban list for April 10.
  • Market wrap up(DWM,T,N,E):The market close higher for the fifth consecutive session on April 6 after the Reserve Bank of India surprised the Street by leaving interest rates unchanged and also raised the FY24 growth forecast to 6.5 percent from 6.4 percent. Auto, financial services, metal, pharma and oil & gas stocks helped the market close higher. The Sensex rose 144 points to 59,833, while the Nifty climbed gained over 40 points to end at 17,599 and formed a bullish candlestick on the daily charts. “The Nifty is currently placed at the important resistance of the previous opening downside gap of March 10 around 17,600 levels. The Nifty on the weekly chart formed a reasonable positive candle for the second consecutive week and is placed at the crucial hurdle of down sloping trend line around 17,600 levels,” The near-term trend is positive. The Nifty can see consolidation before decisively rising to 17,600-17,700. The immediate support is at 17,500. The broader market outperformed the benchmarks, as breadth remained positive for yet another session. The Nifty midcap 100 index was up six-tenth of a percent and the smallcap 100 index rose 0.8 percent. The India VIX, which measures the expected volatility in the market, fell 4.95 percent to 11.80 levels.

Things to note(Traders&Investors): 6 April 2023 Thur,@8.20AM

  • Asia markets mixed ; india expected to raise repo rates, Nik,27518/-295/-1.1%  Dj,33482/80/0.24%  Vix19.08/0.42%  US stock futures are little changed as investors weigh health of job market and economy, BC 28037/-114/-0.41%
  • Oil,80.1, steady as economic fears counter opec+ cuts;   Gold,2030, scales 1 year peak, as slowdown worries mount,  Bonds,3.307, yields fall as investors weigh potential for weak labor market;  Dollar, raises after days of losses, but weak outlook intact,
  • Nifty:17557.05/159/0.91%;Candle:OF,:Long day green; Bank Nifty:40999.15/186.1/0.46p% Candle:OGU,Short ay green ; HB:OGU,Long day green,1654
  • Nifty :Supp Rest
  • Banknifty:Supp Rest .
  • SGX Nifty:17587/-37/-0.2%     FII Long17%FutCash;806;Opt95%
  • OI data Nifty  ( max pain W17500M)
  • OI data Bank Nifty Nifty(max pain W M)
  • News:India’s central bank will announce its monetary policy decision at 10am local time. RBI will also hold reverse repo and govt bond auctions and release weekly foreign exchange data. Avalon Technologies IPO gets 9 percent subscription on second day, Yes Bank Q4 business update: Bank posts 11 percent rise in credit in March quarter, Oil falls as economic fears outweigh OPEC+ cuts. Outlook worsening for bank stocks as Street awaits RBI policy decision, Finance Ministry to meet public sector banks’ heads on April 13, 
  • Events/Results:The National Stock Exchange has not added any stock to its F&O ban list for April 6
  • Market wrap up(DWM,T,N,E):The market advanced nearly 1 percent after a holiday and has formed a long bullish candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe making higher highs and higher lows for the fourth straight session on April 5, ahead of the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled for March 6. The BSE Sensex rallied 583 points to 59,689, and the Nifty50 jumped 159 points to 17,557, continuing the uptrend for four days in a row. The index decisively climbed above the crucial 200-day SMA (17,500) as well as 200-day EMA (exponential moving average 17,515), indicating a positive sign. “After witnessing a decisive upside breakout of the crucial resistance of 17,200 recently, the Nifty is now placed at the edge of moving strongly above another important resistance of around 17,600 levels (opening significant downside gap of March 10),”  The overall chart pattern is getting stronger as per smaller and longer-term charts like daily and weekly. Hence, he believes that the short-term trend of the Nifty continues to be positive and expects this upside momentum to continue in the coming sessions. The near-term upside targets for the Nifty are around 17,800 and the next 18,250 levels for the next one week, whereas immediate support is placed at 17,400 levels,